2025/26 New Zealand Government Bond Programme Set at NZ$38 Billion
In conjunction with the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2025, the Treasury has updated the forecast core Crown borrowing programme.
The forecast 2025/26 New Zealand Government Bond (NZGB) programme has been set at NZ$38 billion, NZ$2 billion lower than that published at the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2024 (HYEFU). The forecast NZGB programme for 2026/27 has been reduced by NZ$2 billion, while 2027/28 and 2028/29 have been revised higher, by NZ$2 billion and NZ$6 billion respectively.
The forecast 2024/25 NZGB programme is set at NZ$43 billion. The NZ$3 billion increase from HYEFU prefunds some of the future cash requirements.
Short-term borrowings (Treasury Bills (T-Bills) and Euro-Commercial Paper (ECP)) at the end of 2024/25 are forecast to be NZ$15 billion, NZ$5 billion lower than at HYEFU. Short-term borrowings are forecast to reach NZ$13 billion by the end of the forecast period.
Forecasts – New Zealand Government Bonds and Short-term Borrowings
| Year ending 30 June (face value) | 2024 (actual) | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Forecast period total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross NZGB issuance (NZ$ billion) | 39.3 | 43.0 | 38.0 | 36.0 | 30.0 | 28.0 | 175.0 |
| NZGB maturities and repurchases (NZ$ billion)1 | 18.8 | 20.6 | 17.2 | 22.6 | 15.2 | 17.8 | 93.4 |
| Net NZGB issuance (NZ$ billion) | 20.5 | 22.4 | 20.9 | 13.4 | 14.8 | 10.2 | 81.6 |
| NZGBs outstanding (NZ$ billion) | 172.9 | 195.4 | 216.2 | 229.6 | 244.4 | 254.6 | n/a |
| NZGBs outstanding (% of GDP) | 41% | 45% | 47% | 48% | 49% | 49% | n/a |
| Short-term borrowings on issue (NZ$ billion) | 19.0 | 15.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 15.0 | 13.0 | n/a |
- Includes NZ$5 billion per annum repurchases of bonds from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held under the Large-Scale Asset Purchase programme until 2026/27.
Further Details
- Subject to market conditions, it is expected that four syndications will be executed in the 2025/26 fiscal year. One is expected to be the establishment of a new 20 September 2050 inflation-indexed bond (IIB) line, and the other three are expected to be tap syndications of existing nominal bond lines. The first syndication is planned to be a syndicated tap of the existing 15 May 2031 by 31 August 2025, subject to market conditions. Further details will be announced in subsequent updates.
- Gross IIB issuance is expected to be between NZ$1.5 billion and NZ$3 billion in 2025/26, subject to market conditions and indicated demand from market participants.
- There are plans to commence a repurchase programme of the 15 May 2026 nominal bond prior to maturity. Repurchase activities will be dependent on portfolio requirements and market conditions. Should conditions support an initial transaction, a further announcement will be made.
- The composition of short-term borrowings will include a minimum of US$3 billion of ECP and NZ$3 billion of T-Bills. The balance of short-term borrowings will be a mix of ECP and T-Bills, depending on relative cost and market dynamics.
- A flexible approach to short-term borrowing will continue to be taken in the annual borrowing programme. Actual issuance of short-term borrowings may vary from forecast, based on realised short-term cash needs. Intra-year, short-term borrowings on issue are expected to vary from NZ$10 billion to NZ$25 billion during normal market conditions.
ENDS
Treasury Contacts
Kim Martin | Director, New Zealand Debt Management
Tel: +64 4 890 7274
Paxton McKenzie | Head of Funding, Investment and Markets
Tel: +64 4 917 6925