In conjunction with the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2022, the Treasury has updated the forecast core Crown borrowing programme.
The forecast 2022/23 New Zealand Government Bond (NZGB) programme has been set at NZ$25 billion, NZ$7 billion higher than that published at the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2021 (HYEFU). The forecast NZGB programmes for 2023/24 and 2024/25 have been increased by NZ$7 billion each year, to NZ$25 billion, while the 2025/26 NZGB programme has been increase by NZ$5 billion to NZ$15 billion.
The 2021/22 year is unchanged, with a NZ$20 billion NZGB programme.
Treasury Bills (T-Bills) on issue at the end of 2022/23 are forecast to be NZ$3 billion. Forecast T‑Bills on issue remain at NZ$3 billion, in the remainder of the forecast years.
Forecasts – New Zealand Government Bonds and Treasury Bills
| Year ending 30 June (face value) |
2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross NZGB issuance (NZ$ billion) |
20.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 15.0 | 110.0 |
|
NZGB maturities and repurchases |
0.8 | 22.1 | 18.8 | 20.2 | 17.8 | 79.7 |
| Net NZGB issuance (NZ$ billion) |
19.2 | 2.9 | 6.2 | 4.9 | -2.8 | 30.3 |
|
NZGBs outstanding |
146.4 | 149.3 | 155.5 | 160.4 | 157.6 | n/a |
| NZGBs outstanding (% of GDP) |
40% | 37% | 37% | 36% | 34% | n/a |
| Forecast T-Bills on issue (NZ$ billion) |
4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | n/a |
Further Details
- From 2022/23 onwards, sales by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) of NZGBs held under the Large-Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) Programme, to New Zealand Debt Management (NZDM), are incorporated in the forecasts at a rate of NZ$5 billion per fiscal year. This leads to higher gross issuance, and NZGB repurchases, of a total of NZ$20 billion across the forecast period. Bonds repurchased from the RBNZ will be retired. Further operational details will be communicated ahead of the first transaction.
- Subject to market conditions, it is expected that two NZGBs will be issued via syndication prior to 31 December 2022. As previously announced, one will be the inaugural sovereign Green Bond, which is expected in late-2022.
- The other syndication is expected to be a tap syndication of the 2035 inflation-indexed bond (IIB), which will be undertaken alongside a repurchase of the 2025 IIB. Further details will be announced in subsequent updates.
- Gross issuance into IIBs is expected to be between NZ$1.5 billion and NZ$3 billion in 2022/23, subject to market conditions. Individual IIB bond line size caps have been increased from NZ$6 billion to NZ$10 billion. Further information on the IIB strategy is available in the latest NZDM Insights.
- Forecast financial asset balances are similar to those forecast at HYEFU.
- NZDM continues to monitor market conditions in relation to its previously indicated plans to undertake a repurchase programme of the 15 April 2023 nominal bond. Should conditions support an initial transaction, a further announcement will be made.
- A flexible approach to T-Bill issuance will continue to be taken in the annual borrowing programme. Actual issuance of T-Bills may vary from forecast, based on actual short-term cash needs and an assessment of relative costs. Intra-year, T-Bills on issue are expected to vary from NZ$3 billion to NZ$10 billion during normal market conditions
ENDS
Treasury Contacts
Kim Martin | Head of New Zealand Debt Management
Tel: +64 4 890 7274
[email protected]
Matthew Collin | Head of Funding, Investment, and Markets
Tel: +64 4 917 6015
[email protected]