In conjunction with the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2022, the Treasury has updated the forecast core Crown borrowing programme.
The 2026/27 year has been added to the forecast period, with a NZ$20 billion NZGB programme.
Treasury Bills (T-Bills) on issue at the end of 2022/23 are forecast to be NZ$3 billion. Forecast T‑Bills on issue are unchanged at NZ$3 billion, at the end of each of the remaining forecast years.
Forecasts – New Zealand Government Bonds and Treasury Bills
Year ending 30 June (face value) |
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross NZGB issuance (NZ$ billion) |
28.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 128.0 |
NZGB maturities and repurchases |
22.4 | 18.8 | 19.7 | 20.4 | 21.2 | 102.5 |
Net NZGB issuance (NZ$ billion) |
5.6 | 11.2 | 10.4 | -0.4 | -1.2 | 25.5 |
NZGBs outstanding |
152.8 | 164.0 | 174.3 | 173.9 | 172.7 | n/a |
NZGBs outstanding (% of GDP) |
39% | 40% | 40% | 38% | 36% | n/a |
Forecast T-Bills on issue (NZ$ billion) |
3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | n/a |
1. Includes repurchases of bonds from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held under the Large Scale Asset Purchase programme.
Further Details
- The decision by the Government that Kāinga Ora’s future financing requirements will be met by loans from New Zealand Debt Management, rather than private markets, has contributed NZ$13.8 billion in additional funding requirements across the forecast period.
- Subject to market conditions, it is expected that a 2030 maturity nominal NZGB will be issued via syndication prior to 30 June 2023.
- Gross issuance into Inflation-indexed bonds (IIB) is expected to be between NZ$2.5 billion and NZ$3 billion in 2022/23, subject to market conditions and indicated demand from market participants.
- There are plans to commence a repurchase programme of the 15 May 2024 nominal bond prior to maturity. Repurchase activities will be dependent on portfolio requirements and market conditions.
- A flexible approach to T-Bill issuance will continue to be taken in the annual borrowing programme. Actual issuance of T-Bills may vary from forecast, based on actual short-term cash needs and an assessment of relative costs. Intra-year, T-Bills on issue are expected to vary from NZ$3 billion to NZ$10 billion during normal market conditions.
- As previously announced, the January 2023 monthly tender schedule will published at 8am (NZT) on 15 December 2022.
ENDS
Treasury Contacts
Kim Martin | Head of New Zealand Debt Management
Tel: +64 4 890 7274
Matthew Appleby | Acting Head of Funding, Investment, and Markets
Tel: +64 4 831 4629