In conjunction with the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2021, the Treasury has updated the forecast core Crown borrowing programme.
The forecast 2021/22 New Zealand Government Bond (NZGB) programme is set at NZ$30 billion, unchanged from that published at the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2020. The forecast NZGB programmes for 2022/23 and 2023/24 have been decreased by NZ$5 billion in each year, to NZ$25 billion. The 2020/21 and 2024/25 programmes are unchanged at NZ$45 billion and NZ$25 billion respectively.
Treasury Bills (T-Bills) on issue at the end of 2021/22 are forecast to be NZ$5 billion, NZ$1 billion lower than forecast at the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2020. T‑Bills on issue have been lowered by NZ$2 billion, to NZ$4 billion, in the remainder of the forecast years.
Forecasts – New Zealand Government Bonds and Treasury Bills
|Year ending 30 June (face value)||2021||2022||2023||2024||2025||Total|
|Gross NZGB issuance (NZ$ billion)||45.0||30.0||25.0||25.0||25.0||150.0|
NZGB maturities and repurchases (NZ$ billion)
|Net NZGB issuance (NZ$ billion)||33.9||30.0||9.1||12.4||9.8||95.2|
NZGBs on issue (NZ$ billion)
|NZGBs on issue (percent of GDP)||38%||45%||45%||46%||46%||n/a|
|Forecast Treasury Bills on issue (NZ$ billion)||8.0||5.0||4.0||4.0||4.0||n/a|
- Tender issuance into inflation-indexed bonds is expected to be around NZ$1 billion in 2021/22, subject to market conditions. Inflation-indexed bonds continue to be an important part of the core Crown borrowing programme.
- A flexible approach to T-Bill issuance will continue to be taken in the annual borrowing programme. The forecasts show current expectations of T-Bills on issue at fiscal year-end. However, the actual level of T-Bills on issue may vary from forecast, based on short-term cash needs and an assessment of relative costs.
- Forecast financial asset balances remain high relative to history, to help manage funding and liquidity risk. Further guidance on the expected level of enduring balances will be provided at future Economic and Fiscal Updates.
- Subject to market conditions, it is expected that two new NZGBs will be introduced, via syndication, in 2021/22. The first is expected to be a 2051 nominal NZGB that will be launched by 31 December 2021. Further details of the second will be announced in subsequent updates.
- These syndications are in addition to the previously announced syndication of a new 15 May 2032 nominal NZGB, which is expected to be launched in June 2021, subject to market conditions.
Large Scale Asset Purchases Programme
New Zealand Debt Management and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand are committed to collaborating closely to ensure the efficient functioning of the NZGB market. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is working closely with New Zealand Debt Management when planning operations under the Large Scale Asset Purchases programme to achieve this objective.
Andrew Hagan | Executive Director, Capital Markets
Tel: +64 4 917 6937
Kim Martin | Head of Funding Strategy and Engagement
Tel: +64 4 890 7274