In conjunction with the Half-Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2021, the Treasury has updated the forecast core Crown borrowing programme.
The forecast 2021/22 New Zealand Government Bond (NZGB) programme has been set at NZ$20 billion, a decrease of NZ$10 billion from that published at the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2021 (BEFU). The forecast NZGB programmes for 2022/23 to 2024/25 have decreased by NZ$7 billion each year, to NZ$18 billion.
The 2025/26 year has been added to the forecast period, with a NZ$10 billion NZGB programme.
Treasury Bills (T-Bills) on issue at the end of 2021/22 are forecast to be NZ$4 billion. Forecast T‑Bills on issue have been reduced by NZ$1 billion, to NZ$3 billion, in the remainder of the forecast years.
Forecasts – New Zealand Government Bonds and Treasury Bills
|Year ending 30 June
|Gross NZGB issuance (NZ$ billion)||20.0||18.0||18.0||18.0||10.0||84.0|
NZGB maturities and repurchases (NZ$ billion)
|Net NZGB issuance (NZ$ billion)||17.6||2.5||4.2||3.2||-1.9||25.5|
NZGBs outstanding (NZ$ billion)
|NZGBs outstanding (% of GDP)||40%||37%||37%||35%||33%||n/a|
|Forecast T-Bills on issue
- Given the decreased borrowing programme, it is no longer expected that a second new NZGB will be introduced, via syndication, in 2021/22.
- Issuance into inflation-indexed bonds is now expected to be between NZ$400 million and NZ$1 billion in 2021/22, subject to market conditions. A more flexible approach to inflation-indexed bond tender issuance will be taken, and a single-price auction mechanism utilised. Further guidance on the IIB tender issuance strategy is provided in an Advisory Note.
- Forecast financial asset balances are lower than at BEFU, though still high relative to history. Further guidance on the expected level of enduring balances is provided in the latest NZDM Insights.
- There are plans to commence a repurchase programme of the 15 April 2023 nominal bond before 30 June 2022. Repurchase activities will be dependent on portfolio requirements and market conditions.
- A flexible approach to T-Bill issuance will continue to be taken in the annual borrowing programme. Actual issuance of T-Bills may vary from forecast, based on actual short-term cash needs and an assessment of relative costs. Intra-year, T-Bills on issue are expected to vary from NZ$3 billion to NZ$10 billion during normal market conditions.
- As previously announced, the tender schedule for the month of January 2022 will be published at 8am (NZT) on 16 December 2021.