In conjunction with the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update 2020, the Treasury has updated the forecast core Crown borrowing programme.
The forecast 2020/21 New Zealand Government Bond (NZGB) programme is now set at NZ$50 billion, a decrease of NZ$10 billion from that published at the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2020. The forecast bond programme for 2021/22 has been decreased by NZ$5 billion, while the 2023/24 forecast bond programme has been increased by NZ$5 billion. The forecast bond programme for 2022/23 is unchanged.
Treasury Bills on issue at the end of 2020/21 are forecast to be NZ$10 billion. Treasury Bill forecasts are unchanged from those published at the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2020.
Forecasts – New Zealand Government Bonds and Treasury Bills
|Year ending 30 June (face value)||2020*||2021||2022||2023||2024||Total|
|Gross NZGB issuance (NZ$ billion)||29.0||50.0||35.0||35.0||35.0||184.0|
|NZGB maturities and repurchases (NZ$ billion)||5.4||11.1||0.0||15.7||12.5||44.6|
|Net NZGB issuance (NZ$ billion)||23.6||38.9||35.0||19.3||22.6||139.4|
|NZGBs outstanding (NZ$ billion)||94.2||133.1||168.1||187.4||210.0||n/a|
|NZGBs outstanding (% of GDP)**||31%||44%||52%||55%||58%||n/a|
|Forecast T-Bills on issue (NZ$ billion)||11.9||10.0||10.0||10.0||10.0||n/a|
**FY 2020 GDP is a forecast
- Issuance into inflation-indexed bonds is expected to be between NZ$1 billion and NZ$2 billion in 2020/21, subject to market conditions. Inflation-indexed bonds continue to be an important part of the core Crown borrowing programme.
- A flexible approach to Treasury Bill issuance will continue to be taken in the annual borrowing programme. The forecasts show current expectations of how short-term cash liquidity needs will be met at fiscal year-end. However, the actual issuance of Treasury Bills may vary from forecast, based on actual short-term cash needs and an assessment of relative costs.
- We continue to forecast cash balances similar to that at the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2020, to help manage funding and liquidity risk.
- Subject to market conditions, a new 15 May 2028 nominal NZGB is expected to be launched, via syndication, before 31 December 2020. To provide additional flexibility, the expected week of the launch will not be announced in the monthly tender schedule media statement. Instead, the expected week of the launch will be announced alongside the announcement of the syndicate panel.
RBNZ’s Large Scale Asset Purchase Programme
New Zealand Debt Management and the Reserve Bank are committed to collaborating closely to ensure the efficient functioning of the NZGB market. The Reserve Bank is working closely with New Zealand Debt Management when planning operations under the Large Scale Asset Purchase programme to achieve this objective.
Kim Martin | Acting Director, Capital Markets
Tel: +64 4 890 7274
Kate Le Quesne| Acting Head of Funding Strategy and Engagement
Tel: +64 4 917 6893