In conjunction with the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2020, the Treasury has updated the forecast core Crown borrowing programme.
The forecast 2020/21 New Zealand Government Bond (NZGB) programme is set at NZ$45 billion, a decrease of NZ$5 billion from that published at the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update 2020. The forecast NZGB programmes for 2021/22, 2022/23 and 2023/24 have also been decreased by NZ$5 billion in each year, to NZ$30 billion.
The 2024/25 year has been added to the forecast period, with a NZ$25 billion NZGB programme.
Treasury Bills (T-Bills) on issue at the end of 2020/21 are forecast to be NZ$8 billion, NZ$2 billion lower than forecast at the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update 2020. T‑Bills on issue have been lowered by NZ$4 billion, to NZ$6 billion, in the remainder of the forecast years.
Forecasts – New Zealand Government Bonds and Treasury Bills
|Year ending 30 June (face value)||2021||2022||2023||2024||2025||Total|
|Gross NZGB issuance (NZ$ billion)||45.0||30.0||30.0||30.0||25.0||160.0|
|NZGB maturities and repurchases (NZ$ billion)||11.1||0.0||15.9||13.5||13.7||54.2|
|Net NZGB issuance (NZ$ billion)||33.9||30.0||14.1||16.5||11.3||105.8|
|NZGBs outstanding (NZ$ billion)||128.1||158.1||172.2||188.7||200.0||n/a|
|NZGBs outstanding (% of GDP)||41%||48%||49%||51%||50%||n/a|
|Forecast T-Bills on issue (NZ$ billion)||8.0||6.0||6.0||6.0||6.0||n/a|
Issuance into inflation-indexed bonds is expected to be around NZ$1 billion in 2020/21, subject to market conditions. Inflation-indexed bonds continue to be an important part of the core Crown borrowing program.
A flexible approach to T-Bill issuance will continue to be taken in the annual borrowing programme. The forecasts show current expectations of how short-term cash liquidity needs will be met at fiscal year-end. However, the actual issuance of T-Bills may vary from forecast, based on actual short-term cash needs and an assessment of relative costs.
Forecast cash balances are similar to those forecast at the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update 2020, and are high relative to history, to help manage funding and liquidity risk.
Subject to market conditions, it is expected that two new nominal NZGBs will be launched, via syndication, before 30 June 2021.
The first is expected to be a new 15 May 2026 nominal NZGB, to be launched in February 2021. The maturity of the other nominal NZGB, which is expected to be longer-dated than the 15 May 2026 NZGB, will be confirmed ahead of syndication.
RBNZ’s Large Scale Asset Purchase Programme
New Zealand Debt Management and the Reserve Bank are committed to collaborating closely to ensure the efficient functioning of the NZGB market. The Reserve Bank is working closely with New Zealand Debt Management when planning operations under the Large Scale Asset Purchase programme to achieve this objective.
Kim Martin | Acting Director, Capital Markets
Tel: +64 4 890 7274
Matthew Collin | Head of Portfolio Management
Tel: +64 4 917 6015