In conjunction with the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2018, the Treasury has updated the forecast Core Crown borrowing programme.
The forecast 2018/19 New Zealand Government Bond (NZGB) programme is unchanged, at NZ$8 billion, from that published at the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2018. The forecast bond programmes for years 2019/20 to 2021/22 are also unchanged.
The 2022/23 year has been added to the forecast period, with a NZ$6 billion bond programme.
Forecasts for Treasury Bills on issue are unchanged from those published at the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2018 for years 2019/20 to 2021/22. At the end of the 2022/23 year, Treasury Bills on issue are forecast to be NZ$2 billion.
Forecasts - New Zealand Government Bonds and Treasury Bills
|Year ending 30 June (face value)||2019||2020||2021||2022||2023||Total|
|Gross NZGB issuance (NZ$ billion)||8.0||8.0||8.0||7.0||6.0||37.0|
|NZGB maturities and repurchases (NZ$ billion)||11.2||5.8||11.1||0.0||8.9||37.0|
|Net NZGB issuance (NZ$ billion)||-3.2||2.2||-3.1||7.0||-2.9||0.0|
|NZGBs on issue (NZ$ billion)||71.0||73.2||70.1||77.1||74.2||n/a|
|NZGBs on issue (percent of GDP)||23.5%||23.0%||20.9%||22.0%||20.2%||n/a|
|Forecast T-Bills on issue (NZ$ billion)||2||2||4||2||2||n/a|
Inflation-indexed bond issuance is expected to be around NZ$1 billion of the NZ$8 billion 2018/19 bond programme.
There are plans to commence a repurchase programme of the 15 April 2020 nominal bond before the 30 June 2019. Repurchase activities will be dependent on portfolio requirements and market conditions.
Forecast NZGBs on issue are consistent with the Government’s commitment to maintain levels of NZGBs on issue at not less than 20 percent of GDP over time. This commitment was taken into consideration when setting the forecast annual bond programme for the 2022/23 year.
Andrew Hagan | Acting Director, Capital Markets
Tel: +64 4 917 6937
Kim Martin | Head of Funding Strategy and Engagement
Tel: +64 4 890 7274